In light of some mixed news about housing and foreclosure for the second quarter of this year, the outlook isn’t too rosy for the short-term future of the nation’s real estate market, a recent New York Times article notes.
Here’s a look at some of the numbers released recently by the Mortgage Bankers Association and various government organizations and what they might mean for the housing market:
- According to the MBA, the number of homes currently in some stage of foreclosure fell in the second quarter of 2010, marking the first such decline since 2006.
- Sources note that foreclosures on subprime loans may have already peaked and are likely now dropping off; however, it seems that prime loans are now in danger of default, partly because of continued high unemployment.
- Mortgages that are 90 days past due (considered to be in “serious default”) accounted for 9.11 percent of all loans in the second quarter, a drop from 9.54 percent in the first quarter of this year.
- Sources note that existing home sales in July 2010 were 26 percent lower than they were in July 2009.
- Sales of new homes, it seems, were down 32 percent in July 2010, compared to a year earlier, apparently making the month the slowest on record (with stats going back to 1963).
- As many as seven million households were behind on mortgage payments in July, according to sources (down from the high of eight million, reached about eight months ago).
- Numbers suggest that banks and lenders are starting to clear the foreclosure logjam: in July, 279,685 foreclosures were started, an increase from 225,700 in June.
Clearly, these numbers don’t exactly point at recovery in the housing market—and some analysts have reportedly predicted that as many as four million American families could lose their homes to foreclosure before the crisis eases.
And such a high rate of foreclosures could have a seriously detrimental effect on the overall economy:
- Less money, less spending: Consumers who are struggling to make mortgage payments are likely to spend less in other areas, meaning that consumer-supported economic growth may be weak.
- More foreclosures, more houses: As banks start foreclosing on homes, more vacant properties will flood an already saturated market.
- More houses, lower prices: This inundation of homes will mean that supply is far higher than demand, and could lead to further drops in housing prices.
- Lower prices, more underwater mortgages: As home values continue to decrease, more borrowers will likely find that they owe more on their homes than those properties are currently worth.
There is no clear end in sight for this cycle of foreclosure.
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